Odds Adjustments by American Horse-Race Bettors

Richard M. Griffith

306 citations0/0 files storedThe American Journal of Psychology

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Sports Analytics and Performance Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Gambling Behavior and Treatments

Abstract

In horse-race betting, the odds on the various horses in any race are a functioning of the proportion of the total money that is bet on each and hence are socially determined. On the other hand, the objective probability for winners from any group of horses is given a posteriori by the percentage of winners. Thus the odds express (reciprocally) a psychological probability while the percentage of winners at any odds group measures the true probability; any consistent discrepancy between the two may cast light not only on the specific topics of horse-race betting and gambling but on the more general field of the psychology of probabilities…

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1981Efficiency of the Market for Racetrack Betting 1978HORSE RACING: TESTING THE EFFICIENT MARKETS MODEL 2001On the state of the art: risk communication to the public 2002Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity “Heuristics”1995Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions.2002Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem 1968Gambling and the Gambler 1976On the Efficiency and Equity of Betting Markets

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