On Geographical Myths and Statistical Fables

Abstract

The address focuses on characteristics and problems introduced into British geography through the quantitative revolution and on the resulting folklore. The development of the quantitative revolution in Britain is reviewed in terms of the backgrounds of those involved and changes in techniques, attitudes and purposes over the past 15 years are considered. The continuing role of statistical methodology in furthering our traditional aims, as distinct from generating new theory and testing hypotheses, is illustrated by examples from climatology and historical geography. The impact of computer mapping upon our traditional approach is outlined briefly and a review is then presented of the influence of quantification on some aspects of physical geography. Finally, implications are suggested for the training of undergraduate and postgraduate geographers. THE once-in-a-lifetime event of giving a presidential address to the Institute provides a unique opportunity to the fortunate individual of being able to present-without fear of publicly expressed opposition or formal questions-his or her views on the state of the geographical nation, or of some selected subset of it. This may be effected by precept, by preaching or by some combination of the two. My initial intention was to present work within the field of climatology. On reflection, however, it seemd more appropriate to pay attention to some of the characteristics and problems that have been introduced into British geography through the so-called 'quantitative revolution', and to explore the folklore that seems to have resulted from its developmenthence my title 'on geographical myths' (of which we have always had more than our fair share) 'and statistical fables' (which may well run them a close second). Furthermore, the collection of anti-quantification quotations recently presented by Taylor (1975) does tend to suggest that there is still a need for such an exercise. It is, of course, more than a dozen years since Burton (1963) affirmed that 'the quantitative revolution is over', implying not-as some hoped-that it had run out of steam and that geography could return to its previous norm, but rather that its ideas and implications were now part of the discipline and could not be ignored. Events have proved Burton right, but in British geography in 1963 this did not appear to be a foregone conclusion, a point that is often forgotten today. Therefore, being aware that many of today's geographers were scarcely out of their academic nappies when the first whiff of grape-shot was being fired in the British arena of this revolution, and that many others seemed to believe that if they ignored its existence it would simply go away, it is appropriate to begin by reviewing these developments as seen by one who was directly involved. This means that, although I have never been enamoured of returning to

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