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'In analysing history do not be too profound, for often the causes are quite superficial, Journals of Ralph Waldo Emerson (10 Vols. 1910-1914), Volume IV, p. 160. Whether Emerson's assumption is correct, or not, it should not discourage attempts from being made at analysis. In the historical geography of Europe one of the problems is to determine the extent of the oecumene of a state for any given period of time. If this can be derived, it provides a way of finding out what other changes occurred and helps us to understand better the historical development of the state as a whole. Sometimes there is a lack of precise data on settlement activity, population density and economic functions, which could enable us to build up a clearer picture of the extent of the state's oecumene. One possible way round this problem is to look at the linkages of the transportation network based on documentary evidence. From such information, we can work out the degree of connectivity of various towns (or nodes) and this we assume to be related to the human activity in these places. Therefore from an analysis of the transportation network it is possible to derive an oecumene for which we have little or no other data. It is at this point that use was made of certain statistical techniques and a computer' in order to analyse two main problems, namely the extent of the oecumene and the centrality of successive capitals within a given state. Three main methods were applied. First, connectivity analysis, a branch of graph theory which provides a method of quantifying some of the intuitive ideas about the advantages that centrality brings to a town or region. Secondly, eigenvalues, a method in which an undetermined parameter is involved in the coefficients of a differential equation, and in which the solution of the differential equation, with associated boundary conditions, exists only for certain discrete values of the parameter. These values can be used in determining the theoretical extent of the oecumene. Thirdly, measurement of accessibility, whereby actual distance between settlements is measured and tested against the accessibility of the transportation network as a whole. Before the results of this analysis can be discussed two main problems remain. Some attempt must be made to define 'an oecumene', and background details on Serbia during the reign of Stefan Dusan (1331-1355) must be given, because it is this state at this time which forms the basis for the whole analysis.
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