Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors

Abstract

This generalization is supported by a wide range of, annual statistics for Great Britain and the United States, and especially by monthly statistics of clearings, commodity prices, and interest rates for the two countries. The argument based upon the three factors just named is outlined in the following paragraphs: i. (a) MINOR CYCLES averaging 3j years (4o months) in length. Though single cycles may vary considerably from this average, an underaverage cycle is often followed by an overaverage cycle, and vice versa, so that the average of two or three consecutive cycles is closer than the single cycle to the general average length.

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