Is the basic conditional probabilistic?

Abstract

Nine experiments examined whether individuals treat the meaning of basic conditional assertions as deterministic or probabilistic. In Experiments 1-4, participants were presented with either probabilistic or deterministic relations, which they had to describe with a conditional. These experiments consistently showed that people tend only to use the basic if p then q construction to describe deterministic relations between antecedent and consequent, whereas they use a probabilistically qualified construction, if p then probably q, to describe probabilistic relations-suggesting that the default interpretation of the conditional is deterministic. Experiments 5 and 6 showed that when directly asked, individuals typically report that conditional assertions admit no exceptions (i.e., they are seen as deterministic). Experiments 7-9 showed that individuals judge the truth of conditional assertions in accordance with this deterministic interpretation. Together, these results pose a challenge to probabilistic accounts of the meaning of conditionals and support mental models, formal rules, and suppositional accounts.

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