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True Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: Evidence Based on a New Measure of Miscalibration
16 references·16 citing·47 second hopsampled
True Overconfidence in Interval Estimates: Evidence Based on a New Measure of Miscalibration (2011)True Overconfidence in Interval Estimates…The trouble with overconfidence. (2008)The trouble with overconfiden…Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (2006)Uncertain Judgements: Eliciti…Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market (2005)Judgemental Overconfidence, S…Do Professional Traders Exhibit Myopic Loss Aversion? An Experimental Analysis (2005)Do Professional Traders Exhib…Overconfidence in Interval Estimates. (2004)Overconfidence in Interval Es…Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks (2002)Dynamic Volume-Return Relatio…Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues (2001)Empirical properties of asset…Knowledge Calibration: What Consumers Know and What They Think They Know (2000)Knowledge Calibration: What C…Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Individual differences in rea…Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask (1999)Overconfidence: It Depends on…Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average (1998)Volume, Volatility, Price, an…Individual differences in rational thought. (1998)Individual differences in rat…Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes. (1994)Simultaneous over- and underc…How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases” (1991)How to Make Cognitive Illusio…Efficient Capital Markets: II (1991)Efficient Capital Markets: IICalibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues (1991)Calibration and probability j…Overconfidence and financial decision-making: a meta-analysis (2020)Overconfidence and financial …The Ideator’s Bias: How Identity-Induced Self-Efficacy Drives Overestimation in Employee-Driven Process Innovation (2019)The Ideator’s Bias: How Ident…AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF BEHAVIORAL FINANCE IN THE SAUDI STOCK MARKET: EVIDENCE OF OVERCONFIDENCE BEHAVIOR (2019)AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF BEHA…Do investors exhibit behavioral biases in investment decision making? A systematic review (2018)Do investors exhibit behavior…Gender Composition and Group Confidence Judgment: The Perils of All-Male Groups (2017)Gender Composition and Group …Field Experiments in Organizations (2017)Field Experiments in Organiza…Combining Interval Forecasts (2017)Combining Interval ForecastsUse of expert knowledge to anticipate the future: Issues, analysis and directions (2016)Use of expert knowledge to an…Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading (2016)Overconfident Investors, Pred…When Experts Become Liabilities: Domain Experts on Boards and Organizational Failure (2015)When Experts Become Liabiliti…Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading (2015)Overconfident Investors, Pred…Do investors put their money where their mouth is? Stock market expectations and investing behavior (2014)Do investors put their money …Confidence and economic attitudes (2013)Confidence and economic attit…Overconfidence, experience, and professionalism: An experimental study (2012)Overconfidence, experience, a…Financial Overconfidence Over Time - Foresight, Hindsight, and Insight of Investors (2011)Financial Overconfidence Over…Managerial Miscalibration (2010)Managerial MiscalibrationJudgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment. (1983)Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)Individual differences in adult decision-making competence. (2007)Spontaneous giving and calculated greed (2012)Assessing miserly information processing: An expansion of the Cognitive Reflection Test (2013)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The case for motivated reasoning. (1990)Managerial Miscalibration* (2013)Fractional Brownian Motions, Fractional Noises and Applications (1968)EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* (1970)The variation of certain speculative prices (1997)Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance (2005)Chapter 23 Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance (2006)Copula Modeling: An Introduction for Practitioners (2007)CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK* (1964)Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have (1984)The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns (1992)Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds (1993)Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors (2000)Capital markets research in accounting (2001)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach (1999)Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. (1999)The Role of Representative Design in an Ecological Approach to Cognition. (2004)Understanding luxury consumption in China: Consumer perceptions of best-known brands (2011)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Judgment under Uncertainty (1982)On the reality of cognitive illusions. (1996)Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing (2001)Measuring Expectations (2004)Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk (1979)The theory of planned behavior (1991)Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control (1999)A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality. (2003)Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics (2003)Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making (2005)Society and the Adolescent Self-Image (1965)Algorithm Aversion: People Erroneously Avoid Algorithms after Seeing Them Err (2014)Algorithm appreciation: People prefer algorithmic to human judgment (2019)Resource-rational analysis: Understanding human cognition as the optimal use of limited computational resources (2019)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Do Investors Trade Too Much? (1999)Gender Differences in Preferences (2009)Eliciting Expert Knowledge in Conservation Science (2012)Model Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis (2012)Sensitivity analysis of environmental models: A systematic review with practical workflow (2016)
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References

  • 1991Efficient Capital Markets: II5,346 cited
  • 2000Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?4,263 cited
  • 2001Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues3,508 cited
  • 2008The trouble with overconfidence.2,347 cited
  • 1998Volume, Volatility, Price, and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average1,980 cited
  • 2006Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities1,549 cited
  • 1991How to Make Cognitive Illusions Disappear: Beyond “Heuristics and Biases”1,160 cited
  • 1998Individual differences in rational thought.874 cited
  • 2000Knowledge Calibration: What Consumers Know and What They Think They Know829 cited
  • 1999Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask786 cited
  • 2005Do Professional Traders Exhibit Myopic Loss Aversion? An Experimental Analysis754 cited
  • 2002Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks689 cited
  • 1994Simultaneous over- and underconfidence: The role of error in judgment processes.644 cited
  • 1991Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues550 cited
  • 2004Overconfidence in Interval Estimates.508 cited

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  • 2005Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market506 cited
  • Cited by

    • 2018Do investors exhibit behavioral biases in investment decision making? A systematic review329 cited
    • 2015Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading284 cited
    • 2017Field Experiments in Organizations169 cited
    • 2011Financial Overconfidence Over Time - Foresight, Hindsight, and Insight of Investors164 cited
    • 2012Overconfidence, experience, and professionalism: An experimental study139 cited
    • 2015When Experts Become Liabilities: Domain Experts on Boards and Organizational Failure101 cited
    • 2019The Ideator’s Bias: How Identity-Induced Self-Efficacy Drives Overestimation in Employee-Driven Process Innovation94 cited
    • 2014Do investors put their money where their mouth is? Stock market expectations and investing behavior87 cited
    • 2016Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading81 cited
    • 2020Overconfidence and financial decision-making: a meta-analysis76 cited
    • 2010Managerial Miscalibration76 cited
    • 2017Combining Interval Forecasts59 cited
    • 2016Use of expert knowledge to anticipate the future: Issues, analysis and directions56 cited
    • 2013Confidence and economic attitudes48 cited
    • 2017Gender Composition and Group Confidence Judgment: The Perils of All-Male Groups46 cited
    • 2019AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF BEHAVIORAL FINANCE IN THE SAUDI STOCK MARKET: EVIDENCE OF OVERCONFIDENCE BEHAVIOR46 cited