Long Waves, Technology Diffusion, and Substitution

Abstract

The long-wave phenomenon is described in terms of development trajectories which are driven by the diffusion of interrelated clusters of technological, organizational, and institutional innovations, and are punctuated by crises that emerge in the transition from an old saturating cluster to a new but yet uncertain development path. The approach is phenomenological, emphasizing in particular the diffusion and subsequent saturation of technoeconomic paradigms and development trajectories that have led to previous Kondratieff upswing phases. The analysis identifies discontinuities and cross-enhancing and clustering in the diffusion of pervasive technoeconomic systems, although the discontinuities between different clusters are not sharply focused, nor is the clustering phenomenon very rigid. Nevertheless, the beginning of pervasive diffusion processes and the onset of saturation is, to a large degree, correlated with the turning points identified in the long wave literature.

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