Bulgarias demographic crisis: Underlying causes and some short-term implications.

Abstract

This article explores the major reasons for the population implosion in Bulgaria a Southeast European country that is said to be threatened with death. Bulgaria has the lowest total fertility rate (TFR) ever recorded for a European country in peacetime-just 1.09 births per woman per lifetime in 2003. It is also the country with the lowest TFR in the world. What is particularly worrying is that the national fertility level has dropped well below the replacement level which is 2.1-2.2 children per woman per lifetime. If that catastrophic rate persists each new generation of Bulgarians will be only about half the size of the preceding one. Because such a dramatic change in the demographic characteristics of a country cannot be without serious economic social and political consequences for its future this article also explores some implications of Bulgarias disastrous situation in the field of demographics. (authors)

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