Research on Method of Urban Passenger Traffic Mode Split Forecast

Abstract

The elements that influence the traffic mode selection can be divided into macroscopic factors and microscopic factors.The macroscopic factors determine the structure of urban passenger traffic mode,the microscopic factors determine the concrete mode selection between traffic zones.Based on the thought of macroscopic factor guiding microscopic factor and the qualitative analysis combined with quantitative analysis,according to the inherent law of the traffic modal split changing with distance,this paper put forward a method of urban passenger traffic modal split which is practical and easy to operation.In the microscopic forecast,special functions were applied to reflect the pattern of traffic mode split,making the microscopic forecast result consistent with macroscopic one through using empirical coefficient and fitting coefficient.This method was applied in urban traffic management planning of Puyang (Henan province) and Changzhou (Jiangsu province),with good effect..

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