Article2010

Effects of Similar Task Experience and Time Slack on Planning Fallacy

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Forecasting Techniques and Applications Psychological and Temporal Perspectives Research

Abstract

People tend to underestimate the time they use in completing a task.Two experiments were designed to uncover the cognitive processes underlying this phenomenon.Experiment 1 tested whether previous experience of similar tasks and NFC(need for cognition)might influence subjects` estimation of task duration/completion time.Experiment 2 tested whether time slack influenced the estimation of task duration/completing time.Results showed that participants underestimated the task duration/completion time both in future and past time estimating.When the task was more similar with previous experience,participants` predictions of task duration were more accurate.There was an interaction between NFC and task similarity in time estimation.Time slack also had effects on the estimation of present task duration.

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