The Mode Share Model of the High-speed Passenger Railway Line and Its Application

Abstract

A network of high-speed passenger railways(HSPRs) are currently in planning and construction phases throughout China,and are set to begin operations in 2008.Under the current configuration of intercity passenger transport,the rail network receives substantial competition from bus and air travel modes on the many of the same corridors.It is expected that the railway mode share will increase significantly after the introduction of the HSPR.The objective of this paper is to predict the magnitude of these changes,and the concomitant impacts on the competing modes,for intercity travel between the cities of Beijing and Taiyuan.A logit model which is widely applied in the transportation research was used for the analysis which selected economy,speediness,convenience,comfort,safety as its 5 targets.The model predicts that the HSPR line between Beijing and Taiyuan will most significantly impact the road and aviation industry,drawing away a large number of passengers and increasing the railway mode share by 10%.

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