DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEL FOR FORECASTING TRAVEL MODE CHOICE IN URBAN AREAS

Abstract

BASED ON COMPARISONS OF FACTORS DETERMINING CHOICE OF TRAVEL MODE, IT MAY BE CONCLUDED THAT TRAVEL MODE CHOICE BEHAVIOR FOR TRIPS TO WORK, AS RELATED TO THE FOUR BASIC FACTORS, TIME, COSTS, SERVICE AND INCOME, IS STABLE OVER TIME AND IS SIMILAR IN PHILADELPHIA, WASHINGTON AND TORONTO. MODAL SPLIT RELATIONSHIPS DERIVED FOR WASHINGTON, PHILADELPHIA AND TORONTO HAVE DEMONSTRATED STATISTICAL SIMILARITY BY COMPARATIVE ANALYSES, AND IS BEING USED FOR TRAVEL MOVEMENT FORECASTING. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT SOME ANALYSIS OF SURVEY DATA FOR A CITY BE CONDUCTED TO DETERMINE PRECISELY THE INTERCEPTS AND POSITIONING OF THE CURVES ON THE USAGE SCALE. ALTHOUGH THE SLOPES SHOULD GENERALLY AGREE, THE INTERCEPTS MAY DISAGREE BY TEN PERCENT. THE DERIVATION OF NEW RELATIONSHIPS FROM SAMPLE SURVEY DATA AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSES WITH OTHER CITY DATA WILL GIVE THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNER THE ASSURANCE HE REQUIRES TO APPLY MODAL SPLIT RELATIONSHIPS IN TRAVEL MOVEMENT FORECASTING.

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