Article1988

Social Security area population projections: 1987.

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Retirement, Disability, and Employment demographic modeling and climate adaptation

Abstract

The following article, first published as Actuarial Study No. 99, describes the population projections that underlie the long-range cost estimates for the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program, which are included in the 1987 Report of the OASDI Board of Trustees. The projections start from a recent estimate of the population in the Social Security Area by age, sex, and martial status and from an estimate of existing marriages by age of husband and age of wife. Three separate projections, denoted Alternatives I, II, and III, are developed by analyzing historical data and making three different sets of assumptions about future net immigration, birth rates, and death rates.

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