Systematic Vagaries In Human Decision Making

Abstract

The paper aims to clarify part of the domain of the study of “psychological probability.” This includes, inter alia, measures of subjective information, choice, risk, decision, subjective chance, “naive” statistics, subjective inference, etc. The domain ranges over theory and practical affairs (for example, gambling, suicide, sport, economics, etc.). Essentially, We are not dealing with normative judgment and behaviour, that is, with what is “objectively” correct, but with human activity subject to all the fallibility to which man is heir. A samijle of representative experiments is described to illustrate the varieties of fallibility, and models are proposed that could serve as explanatory, and as a basis for prediction and for fijirther research. A novel electronic apparatus, MENTON, is also described for measuring subjective “bits” of information in relation to the selective “bits” (of information theory). Impliclations are drawn for perceiving, thinking, understanding and remembering.

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