Verbal Reports Reveal Strategies in Multiple-Cue Probabilistic Inference.

Abstract

In multiple-cue probabilistic inference, people choose between\nalternatives based on several cues, each of which is differentially\nassociated with an alternative’s overall value. Various strategies\nhave been proposed for probabilistic inference. These include\nheuristics, simple strategies that ignore part of the available\ninformation to make decisions more quickly and with less effort.\nHeuristic models seek to explain the sequence of cognitive events\nthat occur as people make decisions. Validating these models\ninvolves evaluating their predictions concerning both outcomes\nand process measures. In this study, we gathered verbal protocols\nfrom participants as they performed multiple-cue probabilistic\ninference. We find converging evidence across decisions, search\nbehavior, and verbal reports that many participants use a\nsimplifying heuristic, take-the-best. These results provide novel\nevidence for take-the-best as a process model of human decision\nbehavior in multiple-cue probabilistic inference.

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