Future Travel Demand in China: Scenarios for Year 2030

Abstract

What might the future of mobility be in China in 2030? “Mobility” is defined as the ability to travel from one location to another regardless of mode or purpose. Researchers at RAND Corporation working with the German Institute for Mobility Research developed two scenarios that address this question with a six-step process: ( a) select influence areas (domains that affect mobility directly) and factors, ( b) elicit projections on factors (via expert workshops in Washington, D.C., and Beijing), ( c) integrate these projections into scenario frameworks (using two analysis methods and a computer-based tool), ( d) produce scenario narratives (based on the clusters produced by the tool), ( e) draw qualitative consequences for future mobility, and ( f) create a wild-card scenario (by looking at events that might disrupt trends). The two resulting scenarios—The Great Reset and Slowing but Growing—are differentiated by three key drivers: economic growth, environmental issues, and constraints on vehicle ownership and driving. Because of a lack of available data on past travel trends, some types of estimates of future travel demand, such as vehicle miles traveled, could not be developed. The scenarios include estimates of future vehicle ownership and production as well as more qualitative estimates for demand on other modes.

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