THE J CURVE PHENOMENON: AN EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

Hafeez ur Rehman · Muhammad Afzal

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global trade and economics Global Financial Crisis and Policies

Abstract

Some previous studies that tested J curve phenomenon and M-L condition for Pakistan used OLS, 2SLS, 3SLS and IV techniques. Their results may suffer from spurious regression problems as the models were estimated without incorporating cointegrating property of the variables. The major objective of this paper is to estimate a reduced form trade balance model to establish the empirical validity of the J curve phenomenon using relatively new cointegration technique, ARDL. The J curve hypothesis is tested for Pakistan using quarterly data over 1972-2002 period. The evidence of J curve is found and long-run effect of real depreciation of Pak Rupee appears to be not favourable.

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References

1973Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation 1996Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'1985Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs 1999Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners 1979The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results 2000German monetary unification and the stability of the German M3 money demand function 1973Price competitiveness in export trade among industrial countries 1990Bilateral Trade Elasticities

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