Mobility Modeling and Prediction in Bike-Sharing Systems

Zidong Yang · Ji Ming Hu · Yuanchao Shu · Peng Cheng · Jiming Chen · Thomas Moscibroda

190 citations0/0 files storedInternational Conference on Mobile Systems, Applications, and Services

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Urban Transport and Accessibility Transportation and Mobility Innovations Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques

Abstract

As an innovative mobility strategy, public bike-sharing has grown dramatically worldwide. Though providing convenient, low-cost and environmental-friendly transportation, the unique features of bike-sharing systems give rise to problems to both users and operators. The primary issue among these problems is the uneven distribution of bicycles caused by the ever-changing usage and (available) supply. This bicycle imbalance issue necessitates efficient bike re-balancing strategies, which depends highly on bicycle mobility modeling and prediction. In this paper, for the first time, we propose a spatio-temporal bicycle mobility model based on historical bike-sharing data, and devise a traffic prediction mechanism on a per-station basis with sub-hour granularity. We extensively evaluated the performance of our design through a one-year dataset from the world's largest public bike-sharing system (BSS) with more than 2800 stations and over 103 million check in/out records. Evaluation results show an 85 percentile relative error of 0.6 for both check in and check out prediction. We believe this new mobility modeling and prediction approach can advance the bike re-balancing algorithm design and pave the way for the rapid deployment and adoption of bike-sharing systems across the globe.

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References

2011Friendship and mobility 2010Bikesharing in Europe, the Americas, and Asia 2009Bike-sharing: History, Impacts, Models of Provision, and Future 2014How land-use and urban form impact bicycle flows: evidence from the bicycle-sharing system (BIXI) in Montreal 2010Urban cycles and mobility patterns: Exploring and predicting trends in a bicycle-based public transport system 2012Optimizing the location of stations in bike-sharing programs: A GIS approach 2010Strategic design of public bicycle sharing systems with service level constraints 2014Evaluating public transit modal shift dynamics in response to bikesharing: a tale of two U.S. cities

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