Marriage Squeeze in China: Historical Legacies, Surprising Findings

Abstract

Since the late 1980s, the proliferation of prenatal sex testing in China has led increasingly to selective abortion of female fetuses. Yet these sexdistorted birth cohorts are still too young to marry. In 2000, a notable shortage of brides at peak marital ages was due to age structure – grooms tend to be older than brides, and the age structure at 20-29 resembled an inverse pyramid. By 2010, a temporary shift to a traditional pyramid should lead to a slight shortage of husbands. From 2015 to 2025, the cohorts affected by prenatal sex selection are projected to experience a severe deficit of brides, yet that deficit should still be due primarily to age structure. The accordion-like fluctuations in China’s age structure result not only from fertility decline following the population policies established in the 1970s – traced back to the Great Leap Forward (1958-1961). they can also be

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