Identifying risk preferences among wildfire managers and the consequences for incident management outcomes

David E. Calkin · Matthew P. Thompson

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Disaster Management and Resilience Economic and Environmental Valuation

Abstract

Management of wildfire incidents involves trade-offs over risks to firefighting personnel, private property and infrastructure, ecological values, public exposure to harm, and the costs of management.Trade-offs, non-linear probability weighting, and risk preferences among wildfire managers are investigated using a multi-attribute lottery choice experiment.The survey-based experiment asks managers to make strategic choices with varying levels of risk to aviation personnel, property damage, and suppression costs.A latent-class model is estimated to identify two classes of respondents with varying degrees of non-linear probability weighting.Differences between the two classes, explained by differences in educational attainment, suggest that expected outcomes of wildfire can vary depending on risk preferences and individual characteristics of managers.

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