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We now go back to what we said in the introduction regarding the distinction between “right” decisions and “successful” decisions.We established that when you try to make a decision such as the ones we have analyzed, it is essentially because you want to achieve a certain result, such as solve a problem or seize an opportunity. In the simplest cases (decisions with a single, uncertain variable) this is obvious: people do not buy lottery tickets for the pleasure of playing the lottery, but because they hope to win a prize. The “right” decision, therefore, would seem to be the one that leads to the desired outcome. As we shall see, however, this cannot be right.
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