Decision Making via Causal Consequences

Abstract

Abstract This chapter discusses how we make decisions. Topics covered include the gambling metaphor, Newcomb's paradox, and people's concern about causal structure. It is argued that in general, both normative thinking and naïve thinking about decisions always depend on a causal model of the decision situation. However, that causal model does not always dictate what people decide. Sometimes people make decisions that reflect how they want the world to be, rather than according to their understanding of how the world actually works. This fact about people is itself a causal mechanism governing one way in which people influence their environments. Behaving as one wants the world to be can make it more likely that the world will actually turn out that way.

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