Has the Long-Run Phillips Curve Turned Horizontal?

Abstract

We all look for patterns to make sense out of life. Economists are no different in this respect from anyone else. It is the location of that search rather than the process itself that distinguishes them from other sifters of data. The danger is that the need to order that environment may lead to creating and preserving tools well past their usefulness. Even worse, we may come to believe that our own constructs, these very same tools, represent some inherent and invariant natural relationship. By doing so, we blind ourselves to the ever changing pattern of economic relationships.

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