New Technological Ways in the Regions of Russia

Abstract

Distribution of new — the fifth and sixth technological ways in economy of regions of Russia is investigated. For economic evaluation of technological structures hysterical time series of real per capita GDP of Great Britain are used. Construction of econometric models of cyclical trends has allowed establishing the date of the beginning of the upward half-waves of the fourth and fifth Kondratieff cycles. For the construction of econometric models of technological structures was assumed that the beginning of upward half-waves cycles coincide with the beginning of the upward wave of new orders, since the beginning of the dominance of another way of life and a torque of the withering away of the old order. We used piecewise linear model orders. By the simulation it was found, that the relic and fourth technological orders provide a contribution to real GDP per capita value of 4000 Gehry-Hemis dollars in 1990. The contribution of the new — the fifth and sixth in the Russian economy is estimated as the excess of the value of real per capita GDP over the contribution of relic and fourth technological structures, evaluated according to the UK. This has allowed for the first time to give an economic assessment of the contribution of new orders in the Russian economy. It now has exceeded 50%. By degree of distribution of new ways in the groups of regions is irregular. The regional group in the economy where new ways are not observed, the economic policy directed to the continued industrialization. In the regions, where new ways make contribution to the economies, economic policy should focus on the development of post-industrial economies.

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