Stagnation der Verkehrsnachfrage: Sättigung oder Episode? Erster Teil der Serie: Entwicklung der Mobilität im vereinigten Deutschland

Abstract

Based on the findings of various sources of information (mobility panels, permanent road traffic recording devices, model calculation methods), this report indicates that for the last couple of years passenger traffic demand has not longer been increasing but has shown notable evidence for stagnation. An analysis of various relevant factors clarifies that this has in fact been an impending tendency. Especially with respect to the demographic changes in Germany and of probably more scarce and definitely more expensive oil resources, a further stagnation of traffic demand seems imminent. This leads to the conclusion that infrastructural development must not be based on the idea of an everlasting growth with expansions in areas where the symptoms of traffic growth have been most obvious. It will rather be necessary to accurately identify specific areas of growth or stagnation and to find a suitable scale for further development. Future planning should concentrate on modification rather than on expansion of infrastructural facilities.

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