MENTAL SIMULATION AND PERCEPTIONS OF PROBABILITY: HOW COUNTERFACTUALLY REFLECTING UPON THE PAST ALTERS PERCEPTIONS OF MEANING

Abstract

Increasing research attention has been given to the psychological construct of meaning and how its perception can be altered through mental simulation. Research suggests that counterfactual thinking can increase the perceived meaning of an event, but the influence of semifactuals on meaning has not yet been evaluated. This research examines the effect of counterfactual and semifactual simulation on perceptions of probabilities and meaning, and explores the role of meaning beliefs. Participants read either counterfactual or semifactual statements regarding a story of how two friends met. Following this manipulation, participants rated the perceived meaning associated with the friendship outcome. Participants also rated the perceived likelihood of the actual outcome and an alternative outcome, as well as the degree to which they believe likely and unlikely events signify meaning. As hypothesized, counterfactual and semifactual thinking led to contrasting perceptions of outcome likelihood. Interestingly, however, both counterfactual and semifactual thinking led to increased meaning ratings.

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