The Determinants of Credit Growth in Lebanon

Abstract

This study aims at defining the credit growth determinants in Lebanon by exploiting a panel data of 34 commercial banks over the period 2000-2015. The empirical results show that deposit growth, GDP growth, inflation, and money supply, all boost bank credit to the resident private sector. Conversely, credit risk, lending interest rate, T-bill rate, public borrowing, and remittance inflows decrease loan growth. We extend our analysis and detect the impact of one year lag of all exploited variables in order to find out if they have a delayed impact on credit growth, where we find several different results. For instance, lag LLP recorded the opposite effect of LLP; ROA does not affect credit growth, whereas its lag lowers credit growth; the impact of a change in money supply amplifies considerably after one year; and finally, the negative impact of remittances fades away after one year.

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