Statistical Issues in Forensic Science

Hal S. Stern

31 citations0/0 files storedAnnual Review of Statistics and Its Application

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Legal processes and jurisprudence Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference Benford’s Law and Fraud Detection

Abstract

Forensic science refers to the use of scientific methods in a legal context. Several recent events, especially the release in 2009 of the National Research Council (NRC) report Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward, have raised concerns about the methods used to analyze forensic evidence and the ways in which forensic evidence is interpreted and reported on in court. The NRC report identified challenges including the lack of resources in many jurisdictions compared with the amount of evidence requiring processing, the lack of standardization across laboratories and practitioners, and questions about the analysis, interpretation and presentation of evidence. With respect to the last, the NRC report raises questions about the underlying scientific foundation for forensic examinations on some evidence types. Statistics has emerged as a key discipline for helping the forensic science community address these challenges. The standard elements of statistical analysis—study design, data collection, data analysis, statistical inference, and summarizing and reporting inferences—are all relevant. This article reviews the role of forensic evidence, the heterogeneity of forensic domains, current practices and their limitations, and the potential contributions of more rigorous statistical methods, especially Bayesian approaches and the likelihood ratio, in the analysis, interpretation, and reporting of forensic evidence.

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References

2009Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward 2005Contextual information renders experts vulnerable to making erroneous identifications 2011Accuracy and reliability of forensic latent fingerprint decisions 2003The Polygraph and Lie Detection 2015Letter to the Editor— Context Management Toolbox: A Linear Sequential Unmasking ( LSU ) Approach for Minimizing Cognitive Bias in Forensic Decision Making 2012Repeatability and Reproducibility of Decisions by Latent Fingerprint Examiners 2015ENFSI guideline for evaluative reporting in forensic science 2013The expression and interpretation of uncertain forensic science evidence: Verbal equivalence, evidence strength, and the weak evidence effect.

Cited by

2021Using the likelihood ratio in bloodstain pattern analysis 2022Towards a likelihood ratio approach for bloodstain pattern analysis 2020The Utility of Expanded Conclusion Scales During Latent Print Examinations 2018Clear communication through clear purpose: understanding statistical statements made by forensic scientists

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