The Future of the American Pacifier

Abstract

Th ecentralaim of American foreign policy has traditionally been to dominate the western hemisphere while not permitting another great power to dominate Europe or Northeast Asia. The United States has not wanted a peer In the wake of the Cold War, U.S. policymakers remain firmly committed to this goal. An important Pentagon planning document stated in 1992, first objective is to prevent the reemergence of a new rival... that poses a threat on the order ofthat posed formerly by the Soviet Union. ... Our strategy must now refocus on precluding the emergence of any potential future global competitor. In pursuit of this goal, the United States has behaved as an offshore balancer, committing troops to Europe and Northeast Asia only when there was a potential hegemon in those neighbor hoods that the local powers could not contain by themselves. In effect, the United States has followed a buck-passing strategy? remaining on the sidelines while getting others to bear the burden of deterring or fighting aggressors?until it could no longer do so safely. Unless this realist pattern of behavior changes radically, the future of the U.S. military commitments to Europe and North east Asia can thus be expected to hinge on whether a potential hegemon emerges in either region that can be contained only

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