Detecting Item Preknowledge Using a Predictive Checking Method

Abstract

Repeatedly using items in high-stake testing programs provides a chance for test takers to have knowledge of particular items in advance of test administrations. A predictive checking method is proposed to detect whether a person uses preknowledge on repeatedly used items (i.e., possibly compromised items) by using information from secure items that have zero or very low exposure rates. Responses on the secure items are first used to estimate a person's proficiency distribution, and then the corresponding predictive distribution for the person's responses on the possibly compromised items is constructed. The use of preknowledge is identified by comparing the observed responses to the predictive distribution. Different estimation methods for obtaining a person's proficiency distribution and different choices of test statistic in predictive checking are considered. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the empirical Type I error and power rate of the proposed method. The simulation results suggested that the Type I error of this method is well controlled, and this method is effective in detecting preknowledge when a large proportion of items are compromised even with a short secure section. An empirical example is also presented to demonstrate its practical use.

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