The Effect of Temporal Delay on the Interpretation of Probability

Abstract

The studies reported here investigate the interaction between probability and delay.In the first study, the fits of a range of high and low probability words were calculated for numerical probabilities presented with either a short or long delay.Results show that participants in the long delay condition felt that high probability words fit small numerical probabilities better and that low probability words fit large numerical probabilities better than did participants in the short delay condition.In a second study, participants were presented with money offers that were both delayed and risky.Findings indicate that delay is given less weight at low probabilities, and probability is given less weight at large delays when probabilities are mid-range.Combined, these data suggest that a trade-off occurs between giving attention to delay and giving attention to probability in judgments.One component of this arises from long time delays "dampening down" the influence of probability level, but the complete nature of the interaction between probability and delay remains to be explored.

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