Transportation Forecasting: A Brief Discussion of Some Important Issues

Abstract

This paper attempts to summarize some of the basic issues which confront the transportation forecaster. Most of these issues arise in other aspects of socio-economic forecasting, but they seem particularly relevant in forecasting the capabilities, usage, and environmental impacts of future transportation systems. The author concludes that there is no one correct forecast methodology. The appropriateness of any method depends on many factors - the nature of the system to be forecasted, the use to which the forecast is to be put, the resources and knowledge which the forecaster can apply to his problem.. Moreover, this paper reflects that transportation forecasting has a subjective component, in this case revealing the biases and inclinations of the author. For a less subjective discussion of this same problem areas, the reader is referred to Garrison and Marble (1965). The main body of the paper is composed of five parts. First two fundamental problems arising from interrelatedness and goal specification are disucssed. Next, the specific problems of forecasting structures and capabilities, transportation flows, and the consequences of transportation systems are summarized. In conclusion, some of the issues which are of general importance for the forecasting of transportation and other socio-economic activities are identified.

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