Integrating cognitive mapping and MCDA for bankruptcy prediction in small- and medium-sized enterprises

Manuel D. N. T. Oliveira · Fernando A. F. Ferreira · Guillermo Olavi Pérez-Bustamante Ilander · Marjan Sara Jalali

69 citations0/0 files storedJournal of the Operational Research Society

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Financial Distress and Bankruptcy Prediction Multi-Criteria Decision Making Cognitive Science and Mapping

Abstract

The 2008 global financial crisis and its aftermath have shown the ability to predict bankruptcy to be a vital management skill and that the methodologies used for that purpose should be as close to reality as possible. This study aims to develop a multiple criteria system to predict bankruptcy in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). It combines cognitive mapping with the measuring attractiveness by a categorical based evaluation technique (MACBETH), resulting in a more complete and transparent process for evaluating SMEs and their risk of bankruptcy. What differentiates this framework is the fact that it is based on information obtained directly from managers and bank analysts who deal with this type of adversity on a daily basis. The results highlight the importance of financial and strategic aspects, among others, and demonstrate how cognitive mapping can improve the understanding of the decision situation at hand, while MACBETH facilitates the calculation of trade-offs among evaluation criteria.

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References

1968FINANCIAL RATIOS, DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND THE PREDICTION OF CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY 1980Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy 1966Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure 1969A Theory of Leadership Effectiveness 1984Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models 2001Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: An Integrated Approach 2002Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis 1968A Theory of Leadership Effectiveness.

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