Stronger effects of self-generated than cue-induced expectations when verifying predictions in data graphs

Abstract

Expectations can come in different forms when analyzing and presenting data. Prior studies have documented stronger effects (behavioral and electrophysiological) of self-generated predictions as compared to cues. While participants presumably cannot help but use their own predictions, they might sometimes ignore cues (of low validity). In two experiments we compared the impact of cues (verbal and visual) and self-generated predictions on the performance of participants checking their current prediction against a presented data graph (linear upward or downward trend). Different from prior studies, the setup allowed for within-experiment comparison of different cue formats and ensured that cues could not be ignored. Nevertheless we found that self-generated predictions had a stronger impact than cues. Verbal cues had a stronger effect than visual cues without verbalization. Responses to graphs with a linear upward trend were faster and were influenced more strongly by predictions, than the response to graphs with a downward trend.

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