Articlegreen2005

Smart Sampling without Reinforcement

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Categorization, perception, and language Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference

Abstract

We conducted an experiment to compare the effect of natural frequencies and active, trial-by-trial sampling on participants' estimation of proportions in a population.The two information formats evoked similar degrees of accuracy, sensitivity to subtle statistical properties of the environment, and sensitivity to the estimates' accuracy.However, in some situations participants who didn't have to sample information showed a greater desire for this information, suggesting profound differences between the two information formats.

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References

1995How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats.1996The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges 1999The ‘conjunction fallacy’ revisited: how intelligent inferences look like reasoning errors 1994Contributions to Mathematical Psychology, Psychometrics, and Methodology

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