Maximum Withdrawal Rates: An Empirical and Global Perspective

Abstract

Standard analysis of retirement strategies involves evaluating their failure rate. One of the shortcomings of this approach is that a strategy may have a low failure rate and at the same time leave a large unintended bequest. Maximum withdrawal rates, by definition, exhaust a portfolio by the end of the retirement period, thus leaving no bequest; they can be used both to assess the likelihood of sustaining any chosen level of inflation-adjusted withdrawals, and more generally to evaluate retirement strategies. This article provides a comprehensive historical perspective on maximum withdrawal rates in 21 countries over 115 years with 11 asset allocations ranging from 100% stocks to 100% bonds. TOPICS:Retirement, global, portfolio construction

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