Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Simón Sosvilla‐Rivero · María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

28 citations0/0 files storedApplied Economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Forecasting Techniques and Applications Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.

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2019American Economic Review 1961Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements 1994Comparing Predictive Accuracy 1995Comparing Predictive Accuracy 1995The Role of Monetary Policy 2013Handbook of Economic Forecasting 2003Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters 2007Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?

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2020Patterns and Expectations

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