Crude Oil and the Libyan Economy

Abstract

Oil is the primary source of income in the Libyan economy; hence, it is important to more fully understand the economic factors associated with this sector of the economy. We applied a recent growth theory model to develop a better understanding of the relationship among capital, labor, domestic consumption of oil, oil exports and gross domestic product (GDP) in the Libyan economy. A log linear model was estimated using annual data for the period 1980 to 2012. All of the coefficients were significant at the 0.05 level except the log of labor, which was significant at the 0.0613 level. The signs associated with the variables were consistent with economic theory. The adjusted R square was 0.912 indicating that approximately 91 percent of variation in GDP was explained by the independent variables. There was only limited multicollinearity in the model as all Variance Inflation Factors (VIF) values were less than 10. Breusch Pagan and Anderson-Darling test results indicated a constant variance and that the errors were normally distributed, respectively. Similarly, the Durbin-Watson statistic indicated an absence of autocorrelation at the 0.05 level. The resulting elasticities were positive and strongly inelastic, indicating that large changes in each of the variables would be required to dramatically increase GDP. Nevertheless, it is clear that oil will continue to play a leading future economic growth and development.

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