First-Level Hypergame for Investigating Misperception in Conflicts

Abstract

A new technique is introduced to model misperception by participating decision makers (DMs) in a conflict having two or more DMs within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution. This comprehensive approach enables one to model a conflict situation involving misperception: held by and about the focal DM and its opponents. To achieve this, DMs' options in a conflict situation are classified based on different kinds of misperception that can alter the choices of the focal DM and/or the other DMs. Furthermore, the combination of DMs' options can generate the universal set of options for the entire conflict, which can then be used to construct the universal set of states. This novel design can differentiate between the states that are recognized by all DMs and those that are recognized individually. Furthermore, eight sets of equilibria are formally defined within the construction of the first-level hypergame in graph form to provide strategic insights into the conflict and reflect the effect of DMs' misperceptions on the equilibria of the dispute.

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