Probabilistic Composition of Preferences in the Graph Model with Application to the New Recife Project

Abstract

A multiple-criteria decision analysis approach, probabilistic composition of preferences, that takes uncertainty as expressed by probability into account, is proposed to rank states within the paradigm of the graph model for conflict resolution. Unlike previous methods to deal with uncertainty in a graph model, the new approach incorporates a compromise solution that reflects subjective and objective criteria, as well as uncertainty. The main advantages of this approach are (1) it makes preference evaluations comparable, even if they are based on entirely different scales; (2) it offers probabilistic combinations of evaluations according to multiple criteria without requiring criterion weighting; and (3) assessing preferences requires less effort from decision makers. An actual conflict regarding the development of an urban project in the city of Recife, Brazil, is presented to illustrate the application of the new methodology. According to the experts involved in the analysis, the equilibrium results provided by the method are coherent and may help all decison makers in future interactions.

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