25 Years of Progress

Abstract

With this issue we celebrate the 25th anniversary of our Journal, and reflect on where we were and where we are now. Much has changed since we started the Journal. Technology has changed and so have the forecasting methodologies. Senior management has become more supportive. Collaboration both within the company and outside is rising, and for good reason. Forecasting software developers have come up with software and systems that are much more agile, scalable, powerful, and faster. The Institute of Business Forecasting has launched a first-of-its-kind program to certify forecasters. In fact, the whole forecasting landscape has dramatically changed. Our Journal over the years reflects these changes. The advancement in technology has helped us in a number of ways. It has improved data processing, data accessibility, data warehousing, and data mining. Data can now be entered, exchanged, messaged, and analyzed quickly and accurately. With EDI (Electronic Data Interchange) and Web-based technology, data can be obtained from any part of the globe in matter of minutes, if not seconds. Data warehousing has enabled us to store a large amount of data at one centralized place. The advancement in technology has also made it possible to use even the most complex algorithms that were not previously possible. It has also contributed to the development of forecasting software and systems that have enabled forecasters to concentrate more on how to improve forecasts than on how to collect and manage data, and prepare forecasts. Forecasting is now a well-established profession. Fifteen years ago, people in this profession used to say that it is a dead-end profession. There was nothing to look forward to after you become a forecasting manager. This is no longer true. Now in a number of companies, you can rise all the way to the rank of Vice President of Forecasting. There also has been a shift in forecasting from macro to micro forecasting. In macro forecasting we concentrate on forecasting aggregate variables such as Gross Domestic Product, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates. Now, more and more forecasters are involved in micro forecasting - sales forecasting, new product forecasting, cash flow forecasting, etc. For a forecasting function to succeed, it needs support from top management. Technology, people, and resources are vital to the success of this function; however, without management's backing, we won't get any of these. It is without question that management support is increasing, though it is still far from what it should be. In my personal encounter with forecasters, I have also seen dramatic changes. …

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