Signs of Non-Linearity in Base-Rate Neglect

Abstract

Base-rate neglect, the tendency of adults to ignore the prior probability of an event, has been well-studied over the past decades.However, the evidence for base-rate neglect and its theoretical implications are still debated.We argue that such lack of agreement comes from the mistaken assumption that performance unequivocally reflects cognitive processes.We adopt a different viewpoint, namely that performance reflects existing constraints in the person-task relation.To test whether this viewpoint is appropriate for performance in base-rate problems we manipulated the constraints available in the task"s response options.With a highly constraining response mode adults are expected to exhibit the classic baserate neglect, with little variability in their performance as procedural factors are manipulated.However, with a less constraining response mode performance is expected to be more variable and more susceptible to subtle changes in the task procedure.Results support this view, demonstrating nonlinear context effects in decision making.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 2 citations exist upstream.

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.