Which Is More Probable—"25% + 25%" or "40% + 10%"?: Effect of the Distribution of Focal Outcomes on Gut-level Perception of Certainty

Abstract

Previous studies reveal that the distribution of alternative outcomes plays an important role in the probability judgment of focal outcomes.Based on this finding, the present study addresses the following question: does the distribution of focal outcomes affect probability judgment?A total of 313 participants (66 in Experiment 1 and 247 in Experiment 2) estimate fictitious results of slot machines with many winning letters.Results of the two experiments indicate that with the exception of a few cases, people estimate a higher probability for focal outcomes that are distributed more uniformly.

Cite this work

No public copy is stored for this record, so only the metadata is cited.

Stored only when both papers are in the corpus — 0 citations exist upstream.

Papers that cite the same references — the relational fallback while embeddings are still backfilling.