Research and Theory on Predecision Processes.

Abstract

Abstract : This monograph discusses six years of research and theory building at the Decsion Processes Laboratory concerned with predecision processes, the cognitive processes that occur prior to making the actual decision. These processes include problem detection, the process by which the decision maker decides that a problem exists; act generation, the process of creating candidate acts that might solve the problem, hypothesis generation where various states of the world are identified that might affect the outcomes of various actions; and outcome generation, a process where the possible results or outcomes of actions are generated. There are nine substantive chapters in the monograph. The first five chapters are concerned with modeling the various predecision processes and describe the empirical research that addresses these models. Chapter 6 is devoted to research on various topics such as schemata, causal explanation, small group research, individual differences, and expertise in various predecision processes. Chapter 7 discusses recommendations for improving predecision performance, including specific attempts to aid the decision maker, and Chapter 8 presents, in summary form, the major conclusions of this program of research. In Chapter 9, general suggestions are made for further research in the area.

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