Backwards Causation and the Chancy Past

Abstract

I argue that the past can be objectively chancy in cases of backwards causation, and defend a view of chance that allows for this. Using a case, I argue against the popular temporal view of chance, according to which (i) chances are defined relative to times, and (ii) all chancy events must lie in the future. I then state and defend the causal view of chance, according to which (a) chances are defined relative to causal histories, and (b) all chancy events must lie causally downstream. The causal view replicates the intuitively correct results of the temporal view in cases of ordinary forwards causation, while correctly handling cases of backwards causation. I conclude that objective chance is more closely related to the direction of causation than it is to the direction of time.

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