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Several heuristics have been developed by economists and psychologists in order to explain economic behavior on financial markets. They stress the cognitive bias that affects individual judgments and that could partially explain anomalies observed on financial markets. The aim of our experiment is to test the suitability of conservative, representativeness, and anchoring-adjustment heuristics in a financial context. Its specificity is based on its dynamic context of fifteen periods. For each period, subjects are given financial information and accordingly adjust their beliefs on firms’ robustness. Econometric treatment of our experimental panel data refutes Bayesian theory: subjects underestimate high probabilities and overestimate low ones. Representativeness heuristics seems to be likewise invalidated: subjects underestimate the strongest signals and thereby, never take advantage of all information. On the contrary, conservatism and anchorage-adjustment are jointly vindicated: subjects underestimate new information when they review their beliefs, but this behavior actually becomes obvious when distinguishing situations in which subjects move away from the anchoring value, from those in which they move closer to this value.
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