Computing Cyclically-Adjusted Balances and Automatic Stabilizers

Annalisa Fedelino · Mark Horton · Anna Ivanova

144 citations0/0 files storedTechnical Notes and Manuals

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Fiscal Policies and Political Economy Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic and Fiscal Studies

Abstract

This technical note focuses on computing cyclically adjusted balances and automatic stabilizers. The note provides guidance on how to decompose overall fiscal balances into cyclical and cyclically adjusted components, and how to interpret automatic fiscal stabilizers. These indicators are commonly used to assess how fiscal policy responds to macroeconomic conditions. Various approaches to cyclical adjustment and estimation of the automatic stabilizers are possible. This note focuses on the approach used by the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department in the paper on the State of Public Finances and in the Fiscal Monitor.

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References

2012Measuring Cyclically-Adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries

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2011When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances 2010Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Stability 2010Fiscal Policy in Oil Producing Countries During the Recent Oil Price Cycle 2011The Real Effects of Financial Sector Interventions During Crises

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