Energy-related CO2 emission forecast for Turkey and Europe and Eurasia

Berk Ayvaz · Ali Osman Kuşakçı · Gül Tekin Temur

35 citations0/0 files storedGrey Systems Theory and Application

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Grey System Theory Applications Forecasting Techniques and Applications Energy, Environment, Economic Growth

Abstract

Purpose The global warming, caused by the anthropogenic greenhouse gases, has been one of the major worldwide issues over the last decades. Among them, carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most important one and is responsible for more than the two-third of the greenhouse effect. Currently, greenhouse gas emissions and CO2 emissions – the root cause of the global warming – in particular are being examined closely in the fields of science and they also have been put on the agenda of the political leaders. The purpose of this paper is to predict the energy-related CO2 emissions through using different discrete grey models (DGMs) in Turkey and total Europe and Eurasia region. Design/methodology/approach The proposed DGMs will be applied to predict CO2 emissions in Turkey and total Europe and Eurasia region from 2015 to 2030 using data set between 1965 and 2014. In the first stage of the study, DGMs without rolling mechanism (RM) will be used. In the second stage, DGMs with RM are constructed where the length of the rolling horizons of the respected models is optimised. Findings In the first stage, estimated values show that non-homogeneous DGM is the best method to predict Turkey’s energy-related CO2 emissions whereas DGM is the best method to predict the energy-related CO2 emissions for total Europe and Eurasia region. According to the results in the second stage, NDGM with RM (k=26) is the best method for Turkey while optimised DGM with RM (k=4) delivers most reliable estimates for total Europe and Eurasia region. Originality/value This study illustrates the effect of different DGM approaches on the estimation performance for the Turkish energy-related CO2 emission data.

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References

1982Control problems of grey systems 1989Introduction to Grey system theory 2011Modeling and forecasting the CO2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth in Brazil 2007Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey 2012Forecasting of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model 2010Time series models (Grey-Markov, Grey Model with rolling mechanism and singular spectrum analysis) to forecast energy consumption in India 2010Forecasting of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis 2014Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using an optimized grey model

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