Modeling Temporal-Spatial Correlations for Crime Prediction

Abstract

Crime prediction plays a crucial role in improving public security and reducing the financial loss of crimes. The vast majority of traditional algorithms performed the prediction by leveraging demographic data, which could fail to capture the dynamics of crimes in urban. In the era of big data, we have witnessed advanced ways to collect and integrate fine-grained urban, mobile, and public service data that contains various crime-related sources and rich temporal-spatial information. Such information provides better understandings about the dynamics of crimes and has potentials to advance crime prediction. In this paper, we exploit temporal-spatial correlations in urban data for crime prediction. In particular, we validate the existence of temporal-spatial correlations in crime and develop a principled approach to model these correlations into the coherent framework TCP for crime prediction. The experimental results on real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. Further experiments have been conducted to understand the importance of temporal-spatial correlations in crime prediction.

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