Predicting Future Gold Rates using Machine Learning Approach

Abstract

Historically, gold was used for supporting trade transactions around the world besides other modes of payment. Various states maintained and enhanced their gold reserves and were recognized as wealthy and progressive states. In present times, precious metals like gold are held with central banks of all countries to guarantee re-payment of foreign debts, and also to control inflation. Moreover, it also reflects the financial strength of the country. Besides government agencies, various multi-national companies and individuals have also invested in gold reserves. In traditional events of Asian countries, gold is also presented as gifts/souvenirs and in marriages, gold ornaments are presented as Dowry in India, Pakistan and other countries. In addition to the demand and supply of the commodity in the market, the performance of the world’s leading economies also strongly influences gold rates. We predict future gold rates based on 22 market variables using machine learning techniques. Results show that we can predict the daily gold rates very accurately. Our prediction models will be beneficial for investors, and central banks to decide when to invest in this commodity.

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